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Saudi Arabia: monthly report July 2024

The Saudi Ministry of Energy announced the discovery of seven gas and oil fields in the eastern region of the country. The head of the department, Abdulaziz bin Salman, stated that the company Saudi Aramco has discovered two "unconventional" oil fields, a reserve of light Arabian oil (a type of crude oil with low density and high gravity), two conventional oil fields, and two natural gas reserves. In the case of the hydrocarbon fields, production is already underway, as they are connected to other existing and operational fields. The reserves, on the other hand, are classified into three categories based on the probability of extraction: proven, with a probability of extraction over 90%; probable, over 50%; and possible, quantities of hydrocarbons estimated to be recoverable with a probability much lower than 50%. It is not yet possible to classify the newly discovered reserves in this case. According to the minister, the discoveries will help increase the country's production capacity in the next 2-3 years, also due to the growing global demand for oil. This last thesis is also supported by the IEA, although its estimates differ from those of the producers' cartel (OPEC+) regarding the date of peak demand.

Economically, the International Monetary Fund has downgraded its estimates for Saudi GDP growth for 2024. The primary reason for the revision, IMF officials explain, is the reduction in oil production adopted by OPEC+. Thus, projections for Saudi growth have dropped from 2.6% to 1.7%. The effects of this adjustment—and the oil production cut itself—are also reflected in estimates for 2025, with the IMF having revised them down by 1.3%. It is worth noting, however, that the non-oil sector of Riyadh's economy is growing at a steady pace; the Minister of Economy and Planning, Faisal F. Alibrahim, recently indicated that the non-oil sector, with a total value estimated at $453 billion, contributed to the country's economic growth by 50% in 2023. Private sector investments, arts and entertainment, and exports have seen the most significant growth.

From a regional perspective, macroeconomic forecasts are therefore not encouraging, with major international financial institutions predicting anemic growth for 2024 due to geopolitical factors such as the war in Gaza and ongoing Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, as well as economic-financial issues like reduced oil production and high debt and deficits in many countries of the area.

Download the July 2024 report

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