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Saudi Arabia: monthly report February 2024

The geopolitics of energy take center stage in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, with Saudi Aramco announcing the suspension of plans to expand oil production. Earlier this month, the World Defense Show took place in Riyadh, featuring the participation of leading companies in the military sector.

Saudi Arabia has declared that it will not expand its oil production capacity and is ready to maintain its maximum production capacity at 12 million barrels per day. This decision contradicts the kingdom's previous statement expressing the intention to increase production to 13 million b/d by 2027. Although no official explanation has been provided by Saudi Aramco, it seems likely that it is reevaluating its estimates regarding future oil demand. Despite repeated production cuts by the OPEC+ cartel at the end of 2022 and in the year 2023, oil prices have remained relatively stable. This stability is attributed to the increased production of non-OPEC countries, especially the United States, the world's largest producer. Consequently, Riyadh appears to be considering the reduced demand for Saudi oil in the coming months and years, particularly considering the growth in production from other countries such as Brazil, Guyana, and Canada.

Although the complicated situation in the Middle East did not cause a spike in crude oil prices, Saudi Arabia's decision does not entail a reduction in current output. The news reassured the markets, leading to a drop in prices following the announcement. Energy analysts suggest that Saudi Arabia's move can be interpreted in two ways: first, as a signal to other major producers in the region (particularly the UAE and Kuwait) to increase investments and production; second, as the kingdom's prioritization of investments in projects related to Vision 2030, which involves expanding natural gas fields and renewable energy sources. Supporting the kingdom's decision, the International Energy Agency has stated that oil demand in 2024 is expected to grow at a slower pace than the previous year.

While Riyadh enjoys a significant margin of maneuverability in the energy sector due to its significant oil resources, the kingdom is also striving to play a prominent role in the defense industry. From February 4 to 8, the World Defense Show was held in Riyadh, bringing together representatives from the most important companies in the sector. In the second edition of the event, the kingdom's General Authority for Defense Companies signed eleven cooperation agreements with as many leading international companies. Notably, an agreement with Lockheed Martin for the construction of THAAD ballistic missile defense systems stands out, marking the only production line of the system outside the United States. According to Janes, the production site is part of a 2017 contract worth $15 billion for 44 launchers and 360 missiles, but it will not be operational for another two years. Leonardo, among the participating industries, also signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Ministry of Investments and the General Authority for the Saudi Military Industries. The agreement aims to discuss, develop, and evaluate investments and potential collaborations in the aerospace and defense sectors. Specifically, the focus is on space activities, maintenance, repair, and overhaul of air structures, localization for electronic warfare systems, radar, and helicopter assembly. The agreement also includes a focus on specific areas in both the aerial combat and multi-domain integration sectors.

Download the February 2024 report

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