Chad

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Chad: monthly report September 2024

The month was marked by the aftermath of the offensive by the Malian Armed Forces (FAMA) and the Wagner Group/Africa Corps in the northern part of the country, mainly targeting the town of Tinzaouaten on the Algerian border. This operation, planned with specific goals and limited scope, had significant international repercussions. The bombings that targeted the area after Wagner’s defeat at the end of July led to increased tensions with Algeria, which has long been critical of the Bamako government following the de facto abolition of agreements with northern armed groups.

The Algerian Air Force carried out deterrent actions against the Malian Armed Forces, with an SU-30 fighter jet taking off from Tamanrasset base after a TB2 drone from the Malian Air Force breached Algerian airspace. This incident also had diplomatic fallout, with the Algerian ambassador to the UN Security Council, Amar Bendjama, calling for sanctions against Mali. Bendjama also denounced the presence of Russian operatives at the border between the two countries, accusing them of several incursions.

Despite the pressure from FAMA and the Africa Corps, northern rebels continue to maintain operational capacity and are able to host diplomatic meetings near Tinzaouaten. In this context, a delegation from the Nigerien rebel group Patriotic Liberation Front (FPL) met with representatives of the insurgents from the Permanent Strategic Framework (CSP) to strengthen ties between the two factions. The news was confirmed by the press offices of both groups. During the meeting, they discussed matters of common interest and evaluated the possibility of signing a mutual assistance pact in the near future in case of attacks by the Alliance of Sahel States (Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger). The groups also emphasized the need to organize and defend their territories against what they describe as "ethnic cleansing" carried out by their respective governments.

In the weeks following the meeting, the FPL claimed responsibility for several attacks near Niamey, opening a second front for the military in power in Niger, who are now simultaneously facing the insurgency of the Islamic State and an internal rebellion composed of armed groups (in Niger, the Popular Front for Justice, led by the Tuareg Rhissa Ag Boula, is also active; he recently obtained a humanitarian visa from France).

In this context, the al-Qaeda-affiliated jihadist group JNIM has resumed attacks in Bamako. At dawn on Tuesday, September 17, an armed attack targeted the Malian gendarmerie school in the Faladié district and several structures at Air Base 101 near Modibo-Keïta Airport, that house Russian mercenaries from the Africa Corps (formerly Wagner Group). The attack by the al-Qaeda-linked group is further proof of the local branch’s ability to strike in the capital and the weaknesses that afflict Mali’s transitional government. The estimated toll of the attack is 100 dead and 60 wounded.

On the diplomatic front, the meeting between the Iranian ambassador to Burkina Faso, Mojtaba Faghihi, and the Burkinabé Minister of Economy, Aboubacar Nacanabo, stands out. The bilateral meeting aimed to explore potential areas of cooperation, with Iran expressing its intention to deepen relations in various sectors, from healthcare to security. This meeting is part of Iran’s new African policy, launched during Raisi’s presidency, which also envisions greater involvement in the Sahel by capitalizing on the tensions between the region’s states, the U.S., and European partners. Last summer, rumors circulated about ongoing negotiations between the Iranian regime and Niger’s transitional government for the sale of uranium, while Mali has already been the focus of intense diplomatic activity by Tehran, leading to the signing of MoUs in the mining, security, and defense sectors.

Download the September 2024 report