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Israel: monthly report July 2024

July seemed to be ending without significant changes in the already complicated situation of the Jewish state, embroiled in the Gaza war, ongoing exchanges of fire on the border with Lebanon, and complex negotiations for the release of hostages and a ceasefire that still seem difficult to achieve. However, on the 27th, an attack on an unexpected target, a soccer field in the Druze town of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights, resulted in the deaths of 12 boys between the ages of 10 and 20 and the injury of many others. Responsibility for the assault was immediately attributed to Hezbollah, especially since the missile launched, of Iranian manufacture, is part of the Shiite movement's arsenal and was fired from an area under its control. Hezbollah continues to deny any responsibility, and numerous theories about what happened are reported by both the Lebanese and the Israeli press. Doubts about the perpetrators of the attack, however, seem entirely unfounded, and the possibility that clashes between Israel and Hezbollah will escalate into open war, as has been feared for months, seems increasingly likely. The international community, however, is working to prevent a Lebanese front from opening, which would put the entire region at even greater risk. A retaliatory attack by Israel is seen as inevitable, but the US and France, in particular, are trying to do everything possible to ensure that their ally chooses the most moderate path possible. Moreover, a tough but limited response was chosen by the Jewish state both after Iran's direct missile launch in April and, on July 19, after the Houthi attack on Tel Aviv, which resulted in one death. Israeli retaliation was immediate and, the next day, a bombing hit the port of Hodeida, controlled by Yemeni rebels, where arms from Iran arrive, as well as humanitarian aid to the country. The attack caused six deaths and injured 87 others. This was Tel Aviv's first direct attack in Yemen and appeared to be aimed primarily at demonstrating to Iran the Jewish state's long-range military capabilities. The assault took place a day before Netanyahu's expected trip to the United States, where he spoke before Congress for the fourth time and met with outgoing President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, the new Democratic candidate for president, and Donald Trump, the Republican candidate. Before the joint Senate and House of Representatives public, the Israeli prime minister thanked Biden for his unwavering support for his country after the October 7 massacre, reiterated his intention to destroy Hamas and reminded that Iran, a supporter of the Palestinian Islamist movement, is an enemy of both Tel Aviv and Washington, which must fight it together. Regarding Gaza, he stated that it will not be reoccupied but that his country needs to control its security to prevent another October 7 from happening. The Strip, he added, should be administered by Palestinians who do not seek to destroy Israel. Talks with Biden, Harris, and Trump focused on the war in Gaza and negotiations for the release of hostages and a ceasefire. The positions of the American president and his deputy on the matter are well known, but even Trump, whose relations with Netanyahu had become more strained over the past four years, reiterated that the conflict in the Strip must end as soon as possible and that the hostages must be freed as soon as possible. To this end, a meeting was held in Rome on the 28th between mediators from the United States, Israel, Egypt, and Qatar. Negotiations are still stalled on some key issues, including the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, which Hamas continues to demand but Tel Aviv refuses to grant. Meanwhile, fighting continues, and on July 13, Israeli armed forces bombed the Al-Mawassi refugee camp west of Khan Younis, considered a "humanitarian zone." The target was Muhammad Deif, Hamas's military chief and architect of the October 7 massacres. Deif was hiding among the civilian population, and 90 Palestinians were killed. However, his death has not been officially confirmed. Instead, Rafa'a Salameh, commander of the Hamas Khan Younis Brigade, was killed in the bombing, in whose home Israeli intelligence had located Deif. There were fears that the bombing would lead to a new stalemate in negotiations. An additional concern for the international community was the unexpected passage in the Knesset, by a large majority, of a resolution against an independent Palestine, which the government and part of the opposition consider an existential threat to Israel and its citizens. Gideon Sa'ar, leader of the right-wing New Hope party that proposed the motion, stated that the resolution indicates to the international community that pressure to impose a Palestinian state is futile. Finally, further complicating the regional picture and elevating the potential risks of an escalation of the conflict, on the night of July 30-31, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was eliminated in Tehran by a missile attack. The event immediately provoked harsh reactions from the Islamist organization and other key players in the Axis of Resistance, as well as from Iran itself.

Download the July 2024 report

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