Somalia
Regional diplomatic efforts continue to avoid a conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia over the Red Sea dispute. The Djibouti government has proposed to Ethiopia the direct management of the Tadjourah port, located in the north of the country and already used by Addis Ababa for the import of certain raw materials. As stated by Djibouti’s Foreign Minister, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, this proposal also includes control of a recently constructed road corridor. The offer is currently under review by the Ethiopian government, which, however, seems more focused on developments within Somalia.
Meanwhile, Cairo has sent the first two planes loaded with ammunition and heavy weapons as part of the defense agreement signed between Egypt and Somalia on August 14, in response to tensions with Ethiopia. According to local sources, Egypt and Somalia are also negotiating the deployment of an Egyptian military contingent, which could reach up to 10,000 troops. The Somali government has escalated the rhetoric, even suggesting the possibility of supporting Oromo and Amhara rebels against the Ethiopian government. In an interview with the Somali broadcaster Universal TV, Somalia’s Foreign Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi stated that the country might consider establishing contacts and providing support to Ethiopian rebel groups if Addis Ababa decides to implement the agreement signed with Somaliland. “The option of having contacts with armed rebels in Ethiopia is open for us”, Fiqi said, while emphasizing that no such initiative has yet been undertaken by Mogadishu. On the same occasion, Fiqi did not rule out the possibility of establishing contacts with the TPLF, the Tigray party that fought Addis Ababa in 2021. These statements were condemned by Ethiopia, as expressed by Nebiyu Tedla, Ethiopia’s Deputy Permanent Representative to the African Union and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, who wrote on X that such attitudes only lead Somalia towards the abyss.
Amid growing tensions with Somalia, the insurgency in Ethiopia’s Amhara region has reached new heights with the FANO rebel group launching an offensive on the city of Gondar. The rebels attacked the towns of Debark and Dabat, north of Gondar, before moving towards the city itself, where they were repelled only using artillery by the Ethiopian army. The attack resulted in about 100 deaths and 30 injuries, with approximately 40 members of Gondar’s police forces reportedly kidnapped by the insurgents, according to FANO’s high command, which also denied initiating negotiations with the Ethiopian government, contradicting statements made by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed a month ago. After withdrawing from the city, the rebels reportedly established a strategic position ten kilometers away from the urban center. This attack marks an escalation, considering that at the start of the revolt in 2023, the armed group had decided to abandon the city, believing they lacked the manpower and resources to hold it at the time. The latest developments could signal increased confidence among the rebels in sustaining a battle in Gondar.
Significant geopolitical movements are also occurring in the context of the Sudan crisis. While negotiations between the RSF militias and the regular army remain stalled, South Sudan is leveraging its oil resources to navigate the turbulence caused by the generals’ war. The South Sudanese government has begun negotiations during the recent Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing for the construction of a new pipeline that would connect South Sudan to the port of Djibouti, passing through Ethiopia. South Sudanese President Salva Kiir reiterated the need for an alternative pipeline due to the suspension of oil flows caused by the ongoing conflict in Sudan, which has already damaged parts of the energy infrastructure. In this context, the Sudan Sovereign Council is taking action. After a meeting between Kiir and al-Burhan on the sidelines of the FOCAC, South Sudan temporarily suspended fuel sales to Sudan to prevent crude oil from being intercepted by the RSF. Subsequently, al-Burhan and Kiir signed a joint plan in Juba to secure oil infrastructure.
Download the September 2024 report
From Iran’s assertiveness to tensions between actors in the Horn of Africa, via piracy and terrorism: the role of the strategic straits in the new instability of the Gulf-Red Sea quadrant.
Here the full video of the interview with H.E. Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, President of the Federal Republic of Somalia, which took place on Tuesday 30 January in Rome at Med-Or Foundation.
Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh speaks at the Med-Or Foundation in Rome, on the sidelines of the Italy-Africa Conference.
| Head of state | Hassan Sheikh Mohamud |
| Head of Government | Hamza Abdi Barre |
| Institutional Form | Parliamentary Federal Republic |
| Capital | Mogadishu |
| Legislative Power | High House, bicameral (54 Members of Parliament), House of Commons (278 Members) |
| Judicial Power | Constitutional Court |
| Total Area kmq | 637.657 Km² |
| Land | 627.337 Km² |
| Weather | Tropical, desert-arid |
| Natural resources | Uranium and untapped reserves of gold, gypsum, bauxite, copper, natural gas. Probably there are oil deposits |
| Economic summary | There aren’t a lot of country’s economic situation data. Despite the lack of an effective national governance, Somalia has an informal economy based on export of livestock, mainly to Saudi Arabia, Yemen and the UAE. Somalian government received a lot of humanitarian aids and remittances for migrants’ people |
| GDP | $7.29 billion (Dec. 2021) |
| Pro-capite GDP (Purchasing power parity) | $1186 (Dec. 2021) |
| Exports | $ 276 million (2020) |
| Export partner | United Arab Emirates 47%, Saudi Arabia 19%, India 5%, Japan 5% (2019) |
| Imports | $4.2 billion (2020) |
| Import partner | United Arab Emirates 32%, China 20%, India 17%, Turkey 7% (2019) |
| Trade With Italy | $38.8 million (2021) |
| Population | 12.386.248 (2022 est.) |
| Population Growth | +2,42% (2022) |
| Ethnicities | Somalian 85%, Bantu and other non-Somalian groups 15% (30.000 Arabs) |
| Languages | Somali, Arabic |
| Religions | Muslims 99.9%, other religions 0.1% |
| Urbanization | 47,3% (2022 est.) |
| Literacy | 37,8% |
Independent since 1960, Somalia is a peninsula located in the easternmost part of the African mainland. It is bordered to the southwest by Kenya, to the west by Ethiopia and to the north by Djibouti. The entire east coast is bordered by the Indian Ocean, while to the north it faces the strategic Gulf of Aden. The population is about 12.3 million and the official languages are Somali and Arabic.
The country is the result of a merger between the TrustTerritory of Somaliland under Italian Administration and the British Somaliland protectorate. Up to today, Somaliland is run totally autonomously from Mogadishu and it claims to be an independent state. The civil war that broke out in 1991, as yet unresolved, has plunged the country into political and social instability, which has favoured the rise of terrorist groups, in particular al-Shabaab, in the south.
Although still characterized by chronic highly negative balances and small volumes, Somalia’s trade with Italy and the rest of the world has been growing fast in the past decade. In addition to economic relations, Italy and Somalia cooperate in the defence and security field, through the Italian participation in UN international missions on Somali territory (UNITAF, UNOSOM II), as well as in anti-piracy operations. Somalia is at the top of the list of priority countries for the Italian Agency for Development Cooperation. Major initiatives have included humanitarian assistance and emergency management, and the implementation of strategic infrastructure to facilitate the reconstruction of the country and foster economic development and institution building. Further initiatives have been undertaken in the agriculture, fisheries and livestock sectors.
