Regional diplomatic efforts continue to avoid a conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia over the Red Sea dispute. The Djibouti government has proposed to Ethiopia the direct management of the Tadjourah port, located in the north of the country and already used by Addis Ababa for the import of certain raw materials. As stated by Djibouti’s Foreign Minister, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, this proposal also includes control of a recently constructed road corridor. The offer is currently under review by the Ethiopian government, which, however, seems more focused on developments within Somalia.
Meanwhile, Cairo has sent the first two planes loaded with ammunition and heavy weapons as part of the defense agreement signed between Egypt and Somalia on August 14, in response to tensions with Ethiopia. According to local sources, Egypt and Somalia are also negotiating the deployment of an Egyptian military contingent, which could reach up to 10,000 troops. The Somali government has escalated the rhetoric, even suggesting the possibility of supporting Oromo and Amhara rebels against the Ethiopian government. In an interview with the Somali broadcaster Universal TV, Somalia’s Foreign Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi stated that the country might consider establishing contacts and providing support to Ethiopian rebel groups if Addis Ababa decides to implement the agreement signed with Somaliland. “The option of having contacts with armed rebels in Ethiopia is open for us”, Fiqi said, while emphasizing that no such initiative has yet been undertaken by Mogadishu. On the same occasion, Fiqi did not rule out the possibility of establishing contacts with the TPLF, the Tigray party that fought Addis Ababa in 2021. These statements were condemned by Ethiopia, as expressed by Nebiyu Tedla, Ethiopia’s Deputy Permanent Representative to the African Union and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, who wrote on X that such attitudes only lead Somalia towards the abyss.
Amid growing tensions with Somalia, the insurgency in Ethiopia’s Amhara region has reached new heights with the FANO rebel group launching an offensive on the city of Gondar. The rebels attacked the towns of Debark and Dabat, north of Gondar, before moving towards the city itself, where they were repelled only using artillery by the Ethiopian army. The attack resulted in about 100 deaths and 30 injuries, with approximately 40 members of Gondar’s police forces reportedly kidnapped by the insurgents, according to FANO’s high command, which also denied initiating negotiations with the Ethiopian government, contradicting statements made by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed a month ago. After withdrawing from the city, the rebels reportedly established a strategic position ten kilometers away from the urban center. This attack marks an escalation, considering that at the start of the revolt in 2023, the armed group had decided to abandon the city, believing they lacked the manpower and resources to hold it at the time. The latest developments could signal increased confidence among the rebels in sustaining a battle in Gondar.
Significant geopolitical movements are also occurring in the context of the Sudan crisis. While negotiations between the RSF militias and the regular army remain stalled, South Sudan is leveraging its oil resources to navigate the turbulence caused by the generals’ war. The South Sudanese government has begun negotiations during the recent Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing for the construction of a new pipeline that would connect South Sudan to the port of Djibouti, passing through Ethiopia. South Sudanese President Salva Kiir reiterated the need for an alternative pipeline due to the suspension of oil flows caused by the ongoing conflict in Sudan, which has already damaged parts of the energy infrastructure. In this context, the Sudan Sovereign Council is taking action. After a meeting between Kiir and al-Burhan on the sidelines of the FOCAC, South Sudan temporarily suspended fuel sales to Sudan to prevent crude oil from being intercepted by the RSF. Subsequently, al-Burhan and Kiir signed a joint plan in Juba to secure oil infrastructure.
Download the September 2024 reportAs the clashes continue in Sudan, it is increasingly necessary to find a solution for the sake of the People. An analysis by Akinyi Omondi
While clashes between SAF and RSF continue, internally displaced persons are on the rise, as well as international migrants and people in need of food, water and medicine. Other sources of concern are the role of Moscow and the ever-present threat of terrorism.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is a strategic infrastructure for the future of Ethiopia, which however represents an element of tension between the countries located along the river Nile.
Head of state | Abdel Fattah al-Burhan (Chairman of the Transitional Sovereignty Council) |
Head of Government | Osman Hussein |
Institutional Form | Federal provisional government |
Capital | Khartoum |
Legislative Power | Transitional Legislative Council |
Judicial Power | National Supreme Court (70 judges divided in panels of 3 judges); Constitutional Court (9 judges) |
Ambassador to Italy | Sayed Altayeb Ahmed |
Total Area kmq | 1,886,068 km2 |
Land | 1.731.671 km2 |
Weather | Rainy in the south, dry in the central and northern part of the country. Sudan's rainy season lasts for about four months (June to September) in the north, and up to six months (May to October) in the south |
Natural resources | oil, land and hydroelectric energy |
Economic summary | The Sudanese economy suffers prolonged social conflict and the loss of 3/4 of its oil production due to the secession of South Sudan; the country struggles to stabilise its economy and offse the loss of foreign exchange earnings. It’s the world’s largest exporter of gum arabic, and it produces 75-80% of the world’s total production; about 80% of workforce is employed in agriculture. |
GDP | $34.33 billion (Dec. 2021) |
Pro-capite GDP (Purchasing power parity) | $3839 (Dec. 2021) |
Exports | $4.03 billion (2020) |
Export partner | UAE 46.1%, China 19%, India 6.3%, Saudi Arabia 5.98%, Italy 4.06% Egypt 3.55% (2020) |
Imports | $8.58 billion (2020) |
Import partner | China 29.3%, UAE 13.3%, India 12.2%, Saudi Arabia 7.51%, Egypt 5.51%, Russia 4.14% (2020) |
Trade With Italy | $ 300 million (2021) |
Population | 47.958.856 (2022) |
Population Growth | 2,55% (2022 est.) |
Ethnicities | Sudanese Arab 70%, Beja 5.5%, Nuba 2.5%, Fur 2%, Egyptian 1.2%, Fulani 0.5%, other 18.34% |
Languages | Arabic and English (official), Nubian, Ta Bedawie, Fur |
Religions | Sunni Islam, small Christian minority |
Urbanization | 36% (2022) |
Literacy | 60.7% |
Sudan, whose independence dates back to 1956, is a state located in Northeastern Africa. The country borders to the north with Egypt and Libya, to the west with Chad, to the southwest with the Central African Republic, to the south with South Sudan, to the southeast with Ethiopia and to the east with Eritrea and the Red Sea. The population is about 48 million and the official languages are Arabic and English.
Once the largest country in Africa, after 2011 Sudan had to give up a big portion of its territory to the newly formed state of South Sudan. The secession of South Sudan deprived the country of three-quarters of its oil production, and the economy is experiencing difficulties.
Although trade volumes between Italy and Sudan remain low, in the last few years, Italy has had a highly positive trade balance and ranks second among the country’s main European trade partners, after Germany. As the economy is still largely focused on farming, agriculture is the sector in which there are the strongest relations between the two countries. Following the removal of US sanctions, many Italian companies have started seeing Sudan as a potentially interesting market.
Italy also contributes to various humanitarian initiatives, especially in the eastern regions of the country.