Sudan

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Sudan: monthly report October 2024

Kenya continues to face political instability exacerbated by the public debt crisis. Economically, the government seems close to finalizing an agreement with the United Arab Emirates for a $1.5 billion loan, with an expected interest rate of around 8.2%, lower than the current yields on Kenyan sovereign bonds. However, the agreement's details may change as negotiations progress, and both parties have remained silent on the specifics. Nairobi’s decision to seek support from the UAE is also linked to delays from the International Monetary Fund, which has yet to release around $600 million in aid. The IMF postponed this funding, expressing doubts about recent government measures amid fears of further public protests. This situation is part of a complex financial landscape in which Kenya struggles to access funding, especially after its sovereign bonds were downgraded to "junk" by major rating agencies. An IMF spokesperson stated, “Discussions are ongoing regarding the policies and reforms the Kenyan authorities are considering to address the current economic and fiscal challenges,” without commenting on Kenya’s negotiations with specific bilateral creditors.

Meanwhile, Kenya's political scene was shaken by the impeachment case of Vice President Rigathi Gachagua. After Gachagua’s removal by Parliament, a Kenyan court nullified the decree appointing his successor, Interior Secretary Kithure Kindiki, following an appeal against the removal. Gachagua also claimed to have survived two poisoning attempts: one on August 30, when undercover agents allegedly tried to taint his food, and another on September 3, in an incident that involved the Kikuyu council of elders. He further lamented the withdrawal of his personal security and the security detail at his residences, accusing President William Ruto of ordering the removal. Gachagua emphasized the political nature of the charges against him (corruption and serious constitutional violations), claiming that the impeachment was executed right after the assassination attempts. President Ruto has not commented on these allegations, likely to avoid compromising sensitive ongoing negotiations with the opposition regarding a possible cabinet reshuffle.

On a regional level, significant developments in the security sector have emerged. In South Sudan, President Salva Kiir replaced the head of the intelligence services, General Akol Koor Kuc, a prominent and controversial figure within his circle. Kuc, who led the National Security Service (NSS) since the country's independence in 2011, has been appointed governor of Warrap State, one of South Sudan’s most unstable areas and Kiir’s birthplace. The leadership of the NSS has been transferred to General Akec Tong Aleu, previously serving in the Ministry of Defense. The sudden removal of Kuc has sparked speculation about the reasons behind it: some believe it may be due to internal power struggles, while others suggest Kuc may be preparing to succeed the 73-year-old Kiir, whose health has been the subject of considerable speculation.

Meanwhile, Ethiopia and the United Kingdom’s intelligence agencies announced plans to strengthen their cooperation on security matters, with a focus on regional stability and counter-terrorism efforts. The statement was issued by Ethiopia's National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS) following a visit to Addis Ababa by Richard Peter Moore, director of MI6, leading a high-level delegation. Discussions focused on regional and international issues, including Red Sea security, terrorism threats, and human trafficking. NISS Deputy Director Sisay Tola condemned destabilizing propaganda attempts related to Ethiopia’s initiative for Red Sea access and emphasized that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) should serve as a catalyst for cooperation rather than fueling conflict. Moore’s visit aligns with London’s plan to reassert its influence in the region: the Labour government aims to strengthen navigation security in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, in response to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, through active cooperation with African coastal states.

Download the October 2024 report

Way Forward; for the Sake of the People

As the clashes continue in Sudan, it is increasingly necessary to find a solution for the sake of the People. An analysis by Akinyi Omondi

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Sudan, a country at war

While clashes between SAF and RSF continue, internally displaced persons are on the rise, as well as international migrants and people in need of food, water and medicine. Other sources of concern are the role of Moscow and the ever-present threat of terrorism.

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The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is a strategic infrastructure for the future of Ethiopia, which however represents an element of tension between the countries located along the river Nile.

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