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Lebanon: monthly report June 2024

The exchange of fire between Israeli forces and Hezbollah continues and the Shiite movement, “in support of their Palestinian brothers”, strikes Israeli communities and outposts daily; the IDF’s counterattacks are always timely. To date, the skirmishes on the border have caused the deaths of 10 civilians and 15 Israeli soldiers, as well as the displacement of thousands of people. About 340 Hezbollah militants, 62 from other terrorist groups, and dozens of Lebanese civilians have been killed. In this dangerous scenario of possible escalation, on June 11, the Israeli armed forces launched an airstrike in southern Lebanon, killing Taleb Abdullah, a senior Hezbollah commander. He is the most important member of the group eliminated by Israel in these eight months of hostilities. In response to the Israeli raid, the Shiite movement launched more than 200 rockets and numerous missiles across the border, the most massive attack launched during this period against Israel, promising to intensify the offensive. Abdullah’s killing has only exacerbated the already tense relations between the two parties. Several times, the Israeli government and the IDF have stated they are ready to intervene forcefully in Lebanon. The danger of the conflict spreading to the Land of the Cedars from Gaza is one of the main causes of concern for the countries of the region and the entire international community. During his recent trip to the Middle East, US Secretary of State Blinken stated that “no one is looking to start a war and that many believe that following the path of diplomacy is the best way to resolve the issue”. Nonetheless, mutual threats between Israel and Hezbollah continued throughout the month. Hezbollah leader Nasrallah warned the Jewish state that, in case of war, its entire territory would be hit. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, during a visit to the United States, stated that his country could bring Lebanon back to the Stone Age, although it does not want to. And no one wants a total war between the Jewish state and the Land of the Cedars, although the tones between the contenders suggest otherwise. The international community does not want it, so concerned that Germany, the Netherlands, and Canada have advised their citizens to leave Lebanon. The UN does not want it, declaring that the conflict would be an apocalypse. The USA certainly does not want it, fearing more direct involvement from Iran and the failure of Israel’s Iron Dome if there were to be a high-intensity attack from Lebanon. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told his Israeli counterpart Gallant that another war with Hezbollah could have terrible consequences for the Middle East and reiterated the importance of a diplomatic solution. Lebanese politicians are also concerned. Samir Geagea, leader of the Lebanese Forces Party, the largest in parliament, stated that the Shiite movement, backed by Iran, is leading the country into dangerous territory and that the government has abandoned the nation. He also added that the conflict in southern Lebanon is not only connected to the war in Gaza because, due to Hezbollah’s ties, the country is now “entangled” in the Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, in Iraq and Syria. Meanwhile, the Arab League declares it no longer considers Hezbollah a terrorist group and is preparing to resume contacts with the Shiite group.

Download the June 2024 report

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